Riots in Kazakhstan. Slavomir Chiragovsky: What will Russia gain?

The state has the largest oil reserves. 40 percent of world production of uranium. Suffice it to say that the world is four times more dominant in oil production than Saudi Arabia. Thus, after the riots erupted, despite the assurances of Kazakh authorities that there would be no production restrictions, the prices of both rose immediately (although workers were able to express their solidarity with the protesters). A notable source of the Kazakhs is the Pygmalion Cosmodrome, located in the south, which was founded in 1955 – the spacecraft’s departure point. Pygmalion is the oldest and largest object in the world. Not only Russian and Russian spacecraft from there. In the past, the world’s largest nuclear test site near Semipalatinsk was also important. Kazakhstan had a fourth major nuclear weapon, which, like Ukraine, was released under pressure from Russia and the West.

Kazakhstan is the focal point of the largest investment program being implemented in the world today, namely the Chinese “one belt, one road”. Contrary to its name, it branches in three directions: Iranian, Turkish and Russian – all of which eventually lead to Western Europe. So far it has been a stable country and a relatively liberal regime. By post-Soviet standards, it is being modernized. At the same time, it is culturally free from the influence of Russian culture and the Russian language. The capital (formerly) was relocated from the nearly Russian-speaking Almaty to the Kazakh-speaking Astana, whose name was changed in 2019 to Noor-Sultan as part of the leadership, which many Kazakh people do not like.

The Russians consider Kazakhstan to be part of the “Rusky Mir”. And even if they are not on this scale, they make the same mistake as in Ukraine, they often do not know each other because they think they have nothing to do. In this respect, independent Russian experts and opposition parties do not differ significantly from the representatives of the regime. All Russian-speakers, of course with Russian roots, are collectively considered Russians who dreamed of nothing but joining Russia. Not only Vladimir Shirinovsky, for example, Alexander Solzhenitsyn openly called for the annexation of northern Kazakhstan.

Meanwhile, there are not only Russian-speaking, but also Russian-speaking Kazakhs, more and more Ukrainians who do not need to be pro-Russian, often no, they do not want to annex their country as a part. Or entirely within Russia. There are also Russians in Ukraine and Kazakhstan who speak only Russian, but do not want this language to be the official language of their country. It is certain that Putin sees the presence of the Russian minority, the size of which is generally many times greater, which is a reason for the neighbor to intervene and add to the sphere of Russian influence.

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However, let us remember that Putin’s intervention in each of these countries is primarily concerned with the Russians, not the Ukrainians, Belarusians or Kazakhs. His number one fear In one of the former Soviet republics there is a color revolution and a change of power “across the street”, not “through the palace”, which would be a dangerous threat, especially now that Putin’s popularity in Russia is at an all-time low.

Sending 2,500 Russian troops would strengthen Russia’s influence, but it would hate the Kazakhs as much as it had previously hated pro-Russian Ukrainians or Belarusians. In the medium and short term, it has little geopolitical significance, but in the long run it may be crucial to the emergence of independence. After Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus, Kazakhstan is another country where Putin is trying to rebuild the Russian Empire, but another country that is losing culturally. The Russian intervention is causing outrage among the Kazakh people, and if it intimidates the opposition, it will have the complete opposite effect. The Russians already had time to reflect, and after the first imperialist gestures they muted the title.

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Let us recall and emphasize that, contrary to the well-established notion that the Kazakhs had seldom begun and were already lost, in a few days they were able to provoke a revolution across the country and seize and burn down the most important buildings in Almaty. They also took me to the airport. They took up arms (including looted gun shops) and clashed with regular police and security forces. They forced President Tokayo to oust the government and, above all, they implemented their main demand, namely the ouster of Nazarbaye from the National Security Council. Maybe he will come back, maybe not. In 2019, he was appointed Kasym-martomart Tokajew, President of the Toy Senate, as his successor, was awarded the title of Life Immunity and Father of the Nation. Of course, he had his billions to enjoy in Dubai or Moscow.

If possible, it is difficult to say to what extent this refers to Tokyo’s independence. The fact that he immediately summoned the Russians may show a lack of character. It is very possible that he felt very weak and feared his surroundings, especially the secret police. After all, he needs no extra forces to reclaim important buildings, squares, airports and arrest thousands of people a day. We know that when Russia comes with fraternal help, it will never come out again. So far, however, the Kazakhs have retreated, and dozens or hundreds have lost their lives, but the protests have not ended. If Tokayev’s regime continues, he will go on the path of more equal modernization, that is, he will share the proceeds from the sale of raw materials with the public or create a police state. The former can strengthen the aspirations of the growing middle class. After the economy, the Liberals will come back. The second will again lead to riots.

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In terms of civilization, the Russian regime has little to offer Kazakhs because its export product is dictatorship and raw materials, which Kazakhstan lacks. In this respect, it resembles Azerbaijan, which is more prosperous and relatively independent from Russia. That is why the Kremlin, mainly the Americans, and now China saw the economic colonization of Kazakhstan.

Another thing is that US and Chinese investments can only be seen by both powers as Russian soldiers land in Kazakhstan. If they do not want to violate their own business interests, they will remain silent and restrain themselves within the message of “expressing concern” and “calling on both sides to stop the violence”. Chevron, ExxonMobil and Western European oil companies have a number of ports and establishments in Kazakhstan where there is a risk of conflict. Business wants peace, and if “Rusky Mir” is or should be where it is, it is complete corruption, some businesses can only do so with a dictator.

For the first time, Moscow uses the “Warsaw Pact” – anti-BIS or anti-NATO version of the Joint Security Agreement, established in 1994, by six former Soviet republics. So far, Russia has not benefited from the agreement, nor has Kyrgyzstan demanded similar intervention in 2010 or Armenia recently during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan.

He may have made decisions from Belarus and Ukraine and hid behind the CSTO uniform, wanting to enter along with the soldiers of Alexander Lukashenko and the leader of Armenia Nicole Pashinian. Start the art. 4. (equivalent to NATO Article 5). Perhaps before the talks with NATO, Russia also has its NATO and shows that it is an equal partner. It is not known who was the foreign invader who attacked Kazakhstan. Djokovic talks about terrorists, Russian television talks about Islamists in Afghanistan, and the Kremlin about the color revolution, but even those who wrote these words did not pretend to believe them.

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There is speculation that all of this will help or harm Ukraine, whether Russia has amassed a million troops on its borders or whether it will remain unpopular. The prevailing view is that Russia cannot accept two interventions at once. 2,500 soldiers were sent to Kazakhstan, not to fight, but to defend the infrastructure, including Bykonor. If the revolution erupts in Kazakhstan, Ukraine will be quiet, at least for a short time. Even the United States could not cope with two wars at once. Today there is no country that can cope with such a task.

At present, the entry of Russians into Kazakhstan will certainly make some appearances in the West, although the US administration firmly believes that this will not be an easy area and that the Russians will make a small profit. They have their own raw materials, and if they try to eliminate the Kazakh rivalry they will primarily be in conflict with China, which they cannot afford. With the Kazakhs, showing that they could burn groups. Putin prefers symbolic dominance. There are no illusions about the return of Kazakhstan’s confirmation.

If he had focused from the beginning on negotiating something from the West at the forthcoming meeting of US and Russian leaders (in Geneva on January 10, two days later in Brussels and the next day in Vienna), he would have gained momentum. Everything still depends on the toughness of America and loyalty to its allies. If he plans another invasion of Ukraine, he will have to wait for progress to be made in Kazakhstan. The time is until March, because then the thaw begins, and in the heads of the players, can not always be alert.

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