Commentary after the visit of the Prime Minister and the President in Kiev: Like an elephant in a Chinese shop

  • – As a citizen, I want NATO to support Ukraine even more and to defeat Russia once and for all to end this horrific massacre of the Ukrainian people. However, if I were a politician or a decision-maker in the military, if asked what to do, NATO intervention would be possible, but I would answer that our soldiers would fight the Russians. With all the consequences, the question is whether anyone will decide to do so, ukasiewicz
  • – The Ukrainians fight beautifully, but they can be defeated. They do not know how much strength they still have. However, I do not think it will take many months for Russia to weaken. He estimates that the process of destroying the Russian economy and destroying Russia’s civilization is underway
  • – I just read the interview with the President of Estonia, “Turn Russia on, fight it, and annex Ukraine to NATO.” I wrote a similar article before the war. I am full of different emotions – honestly the former Polish ambassador to Afghanistan says
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Ukasz Cieśla, Onet: NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine – such an idea was put forward by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslav Kaczynski in Kiev. Is this a viable proposal?

Dr Piotr ukasiewicz, Polityka Insight, Former Polish Ambassador to Afghanistan: Maybe everything is possible, but Jarosław Kaczyński’s opinion is not clear. He spoke vaguely about peace or humanitarian work, which should not be a gas bell for Russia. This seems like a plan that has not been discussed with other NATO members. An alliance is not a group of people driven by emotions, but a group of states that defend their territories. It was as if the words of the PiS leader had not been discussed with his own context.

In the context of this visit, there were also conflicts between Poland and the EU delegation. It is not clear whether the delegation was an EU mandate or a personal initiative of several politicians. In your opinion, will the visit to Kiev have any results?

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I will divide the two points. The visit of Polish politicians and the Prime Ministers of the Czech Republic and Slovenia was a beautiful gesture, a great support to Ukraine.. Something that will be remembered for a long time. On the other hand, Polish politicians are once again moving with the grace of an elephant in a ceramic shop. before that The case of the MiG-29 aircraftIt will be transferred to Ukraine. Although this was instigated by the United States, the latter statement of the Polish Ministry was not fully covered. Moreover, beyond the status and legitimacy of Tuesday’s visit to Kiev, Prime Minister Moraviki has made some announcements that the West is now exhausted and wants to end this war. It seemed like a shout to others. This is not how you do diplomacy. If you want to take it seriously, it is worth not criticizing other EU members openly. The need for unity, and besides, the Union has already shown that Russia can be more effective in countering the war in Ukraine.

Jarosław Kaczyński left the line with his speech on NATO peacekeeping mission?

Not sure if the ranks are all there. Well, maybe the US president and NATO officials would have said that coalition soldiers would not be involved in the war in Ukraine. Perhaps, then, Jaroslav Kaczynski proposed a plan to encourage NATO to discuss such a task. Importantly, sending NATO forces beyond the coalition’s borders would require the consent of all its members. We do not see such consensus and such conversations. We must also remember that NATO did not create peacekeeping missions, which is what the UN is all about. Organizes NATO war missions. The coalition needs political recognition, such as a UN resolution. There will be no such resolution, because Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, will certainly oppose it. After all, NATO can act automatically, but this is a very rare situation.

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In the late 1990s, NATO troops, despite Russian opposition, Bombed Serbia.

Yes, it was. So the UN. NATO can operate without the permission of the Security Council. However, here Russia is a participant and occupier in the war, which is a completely different, new situation.

Is it not also an option to close the sky on Ukraine as the Ukrainians call it?

As a citizen, I would like NATO to further support Ukraine and defeat Russia once and for all to end this horrific massacre of the Ukrainian people. However, if I were a politician or a decision-maker in the military, if asked what to do, NATO intervention would be possible, but I would answer that our soldiers would fight the Russians. The question is whether anyone will do it with all the consequences.

What awaits Ukraine and Kiev? The siege and destruction, a scene similar to Chechnya in which Putin overthrew Russia Grozny?

The West must continue Guy Ukraine, To exert military, political and economic pressure on Russia. She is already on her knees and slowly becoming the big North Korea. Of course, there are more serious scenes. I was reading an interview with the Estonian president who said, “Spoil Russia, fight it and get Ukraine acknowledged in NATO.” I wrote a similar article before the war. I am full of different emotions and I want Ukraine to win with Russia. However, if I were a politician, it would be hard to figure out what to do. If NATO goes to war directly with the Russians, it will run the risk of a nuclear war. For example, will you enter Kiev with the NATO army thinking that the atomic bomb will fall on Przemyśl? This is the basic problem. I think there are intermediate scenes. That is, it puts more pressure on Russia to defeat it with conventional forces.

So the scene for Ukraine is a long war, more civilian tragedy, more bombings?

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Not sure how long that will take. The Ukrainians are fighting pretty well, but they can be defeated. They do not know how much strength they still have. However, I do not think it will take many months for Russia to weaken. It is true that there is support for Putin domestically, but he also knows what the situation is when the ratings he received before the invasion are not objective. Now the process of destroying the Russian economy and destroying Russian civilization is underway. Peace talks are underway. I do not know about many things and I think we will not find out. US President Joe Biden is coming to Poland soon. After all, he could say that it is necessary to enter Ukraine to prevent further massacres. Such a decision would be the decision of the United States because it would bear the cost of a nuclear war. However, I did not expect this situation. There is no direct NATO intervention or nuclear war.

The Ukrainians mention Budapest Memorandum Since 1994. At the time, Russia, the United States and Great Britain guaranteed their territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing post-Soviet nuclear power. None of those announcements remain. Was Ukraine deceived?

Ukraine’s reference to 2022, 18 years ago, when Russia was weak and entering a period of tragedy, is certainly exaggerated. These are not even security guarantees. We should not follow this path because we will say in a moment that the West and Russia have betrayed Ukraine, so NATO will betray Poland in a moment. We have different times and realities. Western nations now need to restructure Ukraine and put strong pressure on Russia so that this war will end as soon as possible and Ukraine will have a better outcome.

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