Over the weekend, the government announced public procurement of grain stored in pits and warehouses at a minimum price of PLN 1,400 per ton. Politicians did not announce which types of grains and which subsidy rules would apply. Let’s look at the latest grain prices on Polish and European markets.
Data from Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (Maintained by Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) Consumable wheat Average purchase prices through collection points in the last week of March were slightly above PLN 1,200 per ton, which was much lower than at the end of 2022, which hovered around PLN 1,500 (a 20% decrease). In autumn, PLN 1,600 was paid per ton of wheat, and the historical peak was in May 2022, when it was PLN 1,720. That means current quotes are about 30 percent higher. Below the peak, but at the same time they are higher than in previous years. For example, in the first half of 2021, prices were PLN 950 per ton (in the previous two years they were in the PLN 700-850 range).
The increase in the price of cereals – which applies to both wheat, rye and corn – began in a big way in the second half of 2021, with, among other things, a significant increase in the price of fertilizers (increasing grain production costs). The harvest was also poor and the supply was low.
Maybe Consumable rye The trends are similar. Currently (data for the last week of April) PLN 880 per ton is paid, which is a decrease of 25 percent. Almost 40 percent compared to Fall 2022 prices. Compared to the May 2022 peak. The prices of these agricultural products are still significantly higher than in previous years.
Average purchase prices Corn Wheat and rye, though less in quantity, have been declining recently. The maximum set in spring last year was lower. Currently, the average price of corn is less than PLN 1,200 per ton, which is 15 percent lower than the previous year. At the end of the year the price was below PLN 1,400 (and remained at this level during the summer). The peak fell in mid-May, when it reached PLN 1,500 per ton.
Contracts for one-month supply of wheat on the Parisian Matif exchange, where agricultural commodities are listed on the European market, rose slightly (0.5 percent) today. The selling price (auction) on Monday afternoon was 251 euros per tonne. September delivery is listed at roughly the same price. Wheat contracts in Paris have been falling steadily for months. By the end of 2022, they have fluctuated around EUR 300 per ton, so the price has fallen by 17% in that time. The exchange rate has fallen 43 percent since the peak that fell in May and the quote reached 438 euros. In comparison, wheat contracts in 2018-2019 ranged from EUR 180-200 per tonne.
It is worth emphasizing that grain price quotations in Poland are very strongly related to prices and trends in the world market. This is evident in the chart below, produced by the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System. Although our prices are slightly lower than the average of the Matif exchange in the EU and Paris, the difference has recently been small, and the direction of changes is the same (very high correlation).
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