As industrial capacity grows and Ukrainian resistance subsides, Russia's war machine has gained momentum, but the Kremlin's current production capacity and stockpile of war systems won't last forever, war experts say.
According to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The production of Russia's defense industrial base will not be sustainable in the medium and long term. This is due to equipment supply and labor shortages, as well as constraints on required resources.
Analysts say there may be enough Soviet-era Russian tanks in storage to see the country through years of war, but the systems are far inferior to newer units. There are also problems with other military elements such as ammunition and manpower.
Many of the millions of missiles Russia has in stock are in poor condition. Russia can produce hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition a month, but must rely on foreign suppliers to maintain production rates, according to The Wall Street Journal and London's Royal United Services Institute.
According to Forbes, because of the sanctions, Russia has had difficulty acquiring all the necessary parts, such as tank optics, and has tried to replicate them with little success.
Russia's shortcomings
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a major factor in the current labor shortage, which could affect weapons production. Many Russian citizens who could serve in key positions have joined the military or left the country. Recent reports also point to serious complaints regarding availability of training, tools and equipment.
If the crisis persists, ISW analysts said, it will “further complicate the Kremlin's efforts to balance Russia's growing economic and energy-production capabilities while meeting the needs of select members of Russia's ultranationalist community by encouraging migrant workers.”
Russian forces have increased their operational speed and gained significant momentum since passing through Avtivka in February.
According to ISW, the growing efficiency of Russia's defense industrial base can only “maintain the pace of Russia's current operations” in the short term.
— A key variable in determining how quickly Russian forces, partially redeployed this summer, can advance is the availability of equipment in Ukraine, which largely depends on continued U.S. military aid, ISW comments.
And that remains questionable, argued Tara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Russia and Eurasia Program, in a recent essay. It doesn't matter if Russia's military is in trouble if Ukraine's security deteriorates due to dwindling support.
The above text is translated from US edition of InsiderProduced entirely by the local editorial office.
Translation: Dorota Salus
. “Hardcore internet junkie. Award-winning bacon ninja. Social media trailblazer. Subtly charming pop culture advocate. Falls down a lot.”