Signing six free agents for a total of $105 million isn’t something people would necessarily expect from the low-revenue, 106-loss Kansas City Royals. But the team’s relative spending spree stems from a series of new and surprising developments, according to sources familiar with the club’s thinking.
The continuing deterioration of a division that the royals consider to be winnable. The owner, John Sherman, who in one notable circumstance chose to sign another free agent rather than trade a talented young hitter. And yes, a draft lottery that punished the Royals in their first two years of existence by assigning them to lower positions than they would have under the old system, which was based solely on a win-loss record.
In 2022, the Royals finished with the fifth-worst record in the game and ended up being drafted eighth overall. In ’23, they finished with the second-worst record and would end up in sixth place. The lower the position, the lower the signing bonus for a first-round pick — and the smaller the team’s overall draft bonus pool.
Because of the Royals’ frustration with the lottery, club officials estimate that the two-year savings in first-round signing bonuses would be in the range of $5 million. The actual number may end up being lower than that, but the point is that the lottery, which the Players Association pushed as an anti-tank measure in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, is starting to have its desired effect. Finishing with a poor record no longer guarantees a top pick.
Thus, the Royals are effectively pushed into free agency. Their farm system is one of the worst in the game. They can’t afford to lose their way to one of the top six picks in the lottery. So, instead of spending their first-round savings from the last two years, they reinvest it in the major league club.
Their timing makes more sense, given the state of the American League Central. The Detroit Tigers, like the Royals, are trying to revive and show an increasing willingness to spend. But the 101-loss Chicago White Sox are making entertaining trade offers for their best player, Dylan Cease. Meanwhile, the Twins and Guardians exercise financial constraints due to uncertainty over their regional sports networks.
The malaise at the department level provides opportunity. Sherman, who took over in November 2019, is clearly growing impatient, eager to end the team’s seven-game losing streak. The fact that the team is seeking public funding for a new stadium may also be part of Sherman’s motivation.
Once the Royals learned they could sign free agent outfielder Hunter Renfrow, who agreed Friday to a two-year, $13 million deal, they were faced with a difficult choice in their quest to acquire another starter. They could trade first baseman/DH Vinnie Pasquantino to the Marlins for left-hander Jesús Luzardo, a deal that sources said was discussed at the winter meetings. Or they could sign right-hander Michael Wacha, a second-tier free agent who has been in some demand.
Luzardo, who remained at the club for three more seasons, was an interesting prospect. But Pasquantino, who did not play after June 9 last season due to a tear in his right shoulder that required surgery, is under club control for another five seasons and still holds high hopes. For a team that ranked 23rd in goals last season, replacing Pasquantino with Luzardo would fill one gap and create another.
The front office consulted Sherman. The owner chose to continue moving forward. On Friday, the Royals reached an agreement with Wacha on a two-year, $32 million contract. Wacha could opt out after his senior season. Right-hander Seth Lugo, who previously agreed to a three-year, $45 million deal, can opt out after his second contract.
In 2023, the Royals rank next-to-last in the majors in ERA, ahead of only the Rockies. But their acquisition of lefty Cole Ragan from the Rangers for reliever Aroldis Chapman proved to be one of the biggest coups at the trade deadline. The additions of Wacha and Lugo would further bolster the rotation, reducing pressure on homegrown pitchers like Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch.
Newer free agent entrants to the bullpen are Will Smith (one year, $5 million) and Chris Stratton (two years, $8 million). Smith, the first of the pitchers to commit to the Royals, helped convince Stratton, his Rangers teammate last season, to join him. Wacha and Lugo, teammates with the Padres last season, are supposed to speak as well.
The six players who signed with the Royals heard the same message from club officials: Section title at hand. All six, including infielder Jarrett Hampson, who signed a one-year, $2 million contract, have postseason experience. The plan is for them to be a stabilizing factor, helping the Royals’ younger players settle into their major league careers.
The team is by no means perfect. Smith, 34, expects the current to be closer, but it is no longer the dominant force it once was. The Royals will likely use another type of late-rounder to help share the shutout load. A left-handed batsman would complement the list of position players, but that is a lower priority. Younger hitters like Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto and Kyle Isbel need to take a step forward, otherwise the Royals’ spending could go to waste.
The lineup behind No. 2 hitter Bobby Witt Jr. will be deeper, with Renfrow, Pasquantino, Sal Perez & Topic for business discussions At the last deadline – getting somewhere in the middle of the application. Players like Melendez and Nelson Velasquez, another revelation at last year’s deadline, could end up at the bottom. And while the Royals may not mix it up, they at least have players who can run: Witt, Isbell, Mikel Garcia, Michael Massey, and Drew Waters. Last season the defense ranked fourth in the majors above average.
The team’s current payroll is $111.7 million Calculated by Fangraphs, it would be the highest level for the royal family on opening day since 2018. The investments could backfire. None of the free agents is a star. But at least the royals are making the effort. Avoiding the lottery, they learned, is a noble goal.
(Top image by John Sherman/Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
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