Has Emmanuel Macron miscalculated this time? France is boiling over

Until now, the retirement age in France was the lowest in the EU. The French retire at an average age of 62.3, while EU residents retire at an average age of 63.8.. The retirement age is 67 in Germany, Italy, Denmark and soon Spain. In Poland it is 60 for women and 65 for men.

Macron’s camp raises the retirement age

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See also: Retirement shocks are on the rise. “People are not prepared for the future”

Unions have already announced another wave of strikes, which often take extreme forms in France. Up to several million people have participated in previous protests in recent months. Stone pelting also took place at some places and police fired teargas shells.

This time the protest wave is expected to be even fiercer. Lukasz Maslanka, an analyst specializing in French politics from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, has no doubt that unionists will try to keep this promise. – Of course protests will mount, and unions will take steps to freeze the economy.That is, the trains may not run or, as in November, there may be no gasoline at the stations – emphasizes the expert in a commentary money.pl.

The French are fed up with both Macron and the unionists

There will certainly be left and far-right opposition in parliament against Macron. However, it is not entirely clear how the centre-right will react, and the French parliament needs its votes to pass a motion of no confidence in the government.

Republicans themselves have raising the retirement age high on their agenda, and they’re faring poorly in the polls. Therefore, according to Maslanka, they can vote against the no-confidence vote. However, if the government falls, Macron will dissolve parliament and hold new elections.

– I think Macron miscalculated, thinking that he could definitely get the support of the Republicans in parliament – Maslanka assesses.

Increasing burden on the pension system

Proponents of this solution argue that raising the retirement age is supported by economic arguments. France, like other highly developed European countries, is struggling with the problem of an aging populationThis is an increasing burden on state finances.

The French pension system, like the Polish pension, is based on current working people supporting retirees. So more people retired and less employed, more burden on the system.

The situation is more complicated in France, where debt levels rose sharply during the pandemic and now stand at 120 percent. GDP. As the European Central Bank increases interest rates, the cost of servicing this debt will also increase, exceeding 3 percent. GDP. Macron argues that this would not be possible without savings.

France has a problem that also affects Poland

The inefficiency of the pension system is a Polish problem. In the same rankings, Poland ranks 28th with a low grade (C).

This means that both countries’ pension systems have “adopted some good solutions, but also carry risks that make it questionable whether they will stand the test of time.”

To assess whether such a system is sustainable without the need for reforms, yes Both France and Poland received a D grade from Mercer’s analysts, who believe reforms are inevitable.

The estimates of experts in France and Poland differ significantly from the expectations of society. When Eurostat asked respondents in 2015 until what age they would like to work, the average in France was 60.3 years (men) and 60 years (women), and in Poland – 58.6 and 57.3 years, respectively.

In Poland, we have “some crazy boom”.

Meanwhile, the problem of retirement age is also urgent in Poland, mainly due to the aging of the population.

We are not younger than the French. The median age in Poland is 41.7 years compared to 42.3 years in France (UN data for 2020). However, we already have a significantly lower fertility rate than the French (1.33 vs. 1.84 in France in 2021, Eurostat), which suggests that we could be statistically aging any time soon.

According to the expert, there are only two ways to save the computer. By creating attractive conditions for immigrants who want to settle in Poland and by increasing the retirement age.

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