Demand for the new iPad Pro is likely to be low for two reasons: TrendForce

You might expect the introduction of the first OLED displays and ultra-thin form factor to lead to strong demand for the iPad Pro, but new forecasts from market intelligence firm TrendForce suggest it may actually be lower than last year.

The company expects total shipments of the latest iPad Pro models “to reach only 4.5 to 5 million units in 2024” — which will decline in 2023. He gives two reasons for this pessimistic picture…

New iPad Pro models – OLED chip and thinner M4

When Apple announced the new iPad Pro models yesterday, there were three main improvements over previous versions:

  • The form factor is thinner
  • OLED screens
  • M4 chip

Demand will likely be relatively low

TrendForce estimates that total demand for the iPad Pro this year will be between 4.5 million and 5 million units, which actually represents a decline in demand year-over-year, despite the new features.

The company offers two reasons for this, the first being price. The new models get a $200 increase in starting price (albeit with double the storage), and additionally require the all-new Magic Keyboard and Apple Pencil Pro accessories. This makes the total cost of the upgrade very beloved.

But the second factor is the launch of the 13-inch iPad Air. I said earlier that I saw this as huge news.

For the first time, iPad buyers no longer have to pay for Pro features they don’t need just to get a bigger screen.

TrendForce agrees.

The introduction of the 13-inch iPad Air may dampen consumer interest, affecting demand for other models [including the new iPad Pro].

But Apple will still take half the market

The company says that while demand may be lower than some expect, the overall size of the OLED iPad market is small, so Apple will capture about half of it.

Total AMOLED tablet shipments are expected to reach about 9 million units in 2024, representing about 7% of the tablet market.

picture: apple

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