65-year-old German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his debut on TikTok.
The unexpected appearance of shoals Controversial usage That is no coincidence. A few days before he leaves for China (where Tik Tok originated), the president's message is clear: a friend is coming. Finally The president needs Beijing.
The next election in Germany will be held in a year. The head of government of the former European economic powerhouse is running out of time. He must perform a miracle and improve his terrible reputation in German society. Shales' three-day visit to the Middle KingdomStarting Saturday, it will be his longest and most important foreign trip since he takes office in late 2021.
For the president, plagued by low support rates and coalition clashes, the visit is more than an opportunity to stamp his position in world politics. Above all, Olaf Scholz will want to show voters that he will do everything in his power to make Germany grow stronger.
Business matters
China seems to be the place to avoid shoals. This is evidenced by the fact that the US – a major ally of Germany – is putting pressure on Berlin to avoid risks associated with relations with Beijing. Not to mention China's recent exploits Human rights.
Under President Xi Jinping, China has taken an authoritarian turn, crushing Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement and imprisoning more than a million Uyghurs in “re-education camps” (which sound disturbingly similar. Camps)
One might expect that history has sensitized Germans to the plight of an ethnic minority forced to live behind barbed wire and guarded by armed guards in towers. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Even as German leaders remind the world of their commitment to the highest moral standards, Berlin has demonstrated time and time again that it is not willing to sacrifice its prosperity for human rights, US security concerns or fears of the European Union. Trade and Industry.
Scholz did not draw conclusions
For example, let's look at relations with Russia. Only when Russian tanks rolled into Kiev in early 2022 did Germany, after years of ignoring allies' warnings about its reliance on Moscow, reverse course and begin to sweep away Russian power.
However, this does not mean that Scholes has made any decisions. His worries about dependence on other countries appear to have evaporated amid the storm clouds over the German economy.
Gilai Shen, Bloomberg/Getty Images
Siemens factory in Shanghai
Scholes' China gamble may not work.
Highway to hell
From the perspective of German exporters, the road to China was paved with gold for decades. She allowed it Increase profits and maintain Germany's position as one of the world's largest economies.
Although recently This road looks like a highway to hell. All this is due to Beijing's protectionism and strict industrial policy.
Two-thirds of German companies surveyed by the German Chamber of Commerce complained about “unfair competition” in China.
Meanwhile, the EU is increasingly frustrated by Beijing's generous subsidies to key industries. Wind turbine manufacturers For automotive companies. Mass imports of cheap Chinese electric vehicles into Europe are putting pressure on local manufacturers. And Brussels is considering imposing tariffs in the summer.
Career under pressure
German automotive industry It is also under pressure from cheap imports. But companies such as Mercedes and BMW are reluctant to back China's punishment for fear that Beijing will retaliate and damage their businesses. And there is such a visual possibility.
In other words: no going back. When German industry first moved to China in the 1980s, politicians and executives believed they were investing in the future. With prosperity, China will liberalize and become more westernized and democratic.
Forrest Anderson/Getty Images
Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang and President Helmut Kohl in Beijing, July 14, 1987.
It was a good theory. The procedure by which Uyghurs can attest is very different.
Germany needs China
China has been learning from the West for decades and improving its technology to the point that it is no longer dependent on countries like Germany. Unfortunately, it doesn't work both ways – Berlin still needs Beijing.
For German companies like Siemens and Volkswagen, which started investing in the Chinese market 40 years ago, the country A pillar of global operations. China alone is responsible for approximately 50 percent. Worldwide sales of VW cars.
Despite VW's turbulent history – The company was founded under the Nazi regime and relied on slave labor during World War II – it still has a factory in Xinjiang, Uighurs are detained there. While the company has been criticized in Germany for this reason, the withdrawal could anger Chinese leaders.
Most dependent on China are large German auto companies and chemical manufacturers such as BASF. Many sub-suppliers have also chosen the Middle Kingdom.
– Trade with China brings us prosperity and is practical in the short term irreversible – says Moritz Shularik, head of the Kiel Institute for the Global Economy.
“The Stalled Economy”
After a weaker 2023, economists and the International Monetary Fund expect Further stagnation of the German economy. Exports have fallen more than 2% this year, with no improvement on the horizon. While unemployment is still low, that will change quickly if the economy doesn't pick up.
Germany faces Many challenges related to economic development – From chronic shortage of skilled workers to excessive regulation. Some economists believe that negative sentiment among businesses and consumers is the most crippling factor.
“The German economy is almost paralyzed,” says Timo Vollmerhäuser, an economist at the Munich Ifo Institute, one of Germany's most prominent economic think tanks.
In this context, Scholes' journey looks like this An act of desperation. Even as China opens its doors to more foreign competition Stopped price gouging in Europe, China's economy is not the growth force of the past. A real estate crisis and overcapacity in key sectors have kept the Middle Kingdom on edge.
Breaking with China?
More worryingly, China no longer needs the machinery and other high-tech capital goods that fueled German export growth in recent decades. The reason is not only weak demand. CChinese companies often catch up to their German rivalsReduces your country's dependence on imports.
These trends have led some politicians — particularly the Beijing-critical Green Party — to argue that Germany should strive to remain independent of the Chinese economy. According to a recent study by the Kiel Institute, a break with China would shrink the German economy by roughly 5%. This is comparable to the 2008 financial crisis or the economic collapse in Germany after the Covid-19 pandemic. In other words, it will be painful, but not dangerous.
“Our country is resilient enough to deal with such an extreme situation,” says Shularik.
Easy to say. At a time when his country's economy is already struggling, Scholz cannot afford to further erode Germany's trade ties with China.
There is no alternative
Sholes' problem is that he has no one to turn to.
German industry is already strongly linked to the US, which is by far the country's largest export market. In 2023 alone, German exports to the USA will amount to EUR 158 billion (approx. PLN 630 billion), and to China – EUR 97 billion (approx. PLN 390 billion). On paper, Beijing – Germany's largest trading partner after adding exports and imports – looks like a market with high growth potential.
Given Germany's dire economic situation, Scholz needs to show that he is doing something. Given the success German companies have enjoyed in China over the years, there's no better place to prove to voters that he's serious.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan and global security put Germany in a difficult position. The United States and China together account for nearly 20 percent. German trade means that the country cannot afford to lose any of its partners.
In search of balance
Germany's dependence on the US for security meant it had no choice but to bow to US pressure to distance itself from China. However, so far Scholz, like Angela Merkel, has managed to find a balance between two economic powers.
Partly due to success Berlin's unworthiness. Germany is not convinced by US pressure to ban Chinese giant Huawei from supplying equipment for modern mobile networks. However, they promised to consider the matter carefully. Five years later, they're still watching, and Huawei is as active as ever.
German industry has not reduced its involvement in China. On the contrary: you can say that he goes all the way. In 2023, German direct investments in this country will reach a record level of almost EUR 12 billion (approximately PLN 15 billion). Between 2021 and 2023, Germany invested more in China than in the previous five years, according to estimates by the renowned economic institute IW Köln.
Scholz ignores American doubts
No one understands Germany's reliance on China better than Xi Jinping. After he turns right in 2022 He was appointed as the head of the nation for lifeSchales was the first foreign politician to meet him.
The President's entourage tried to present the visit as a peace mission. Germany says Vladimir Putin has convinced President Xi Jinping to stop using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Even then, Scholes' main goal was business. Neglect Washington's skepticismHe took a dozen or so German business representatives with him to Beijing.
Tight attendance schedule
This time it was the arrival of Scholes Even more ambitious. He plans to visit Shanghai, Beijing and the Tri-Cities Chongqing is a metropolis of 30 million people, where hundreds of German companies operate. The highlight of Scholz's trip was an audience with Xi Jinping on Tuesday.
The German economy may be weak, but China still values its good relations with Berlin. Both are due to Germany's position in the European Union and its close ties with the United States.
Donald Trump's return to the White House next year will be a golden opportunity for the Chinese leader to woo Berlin with the promise of closer economic ties.
The question is whether Scholz would be willing to dance to Xi Jinping's tune.
. “Hardcore internet junkie. Award-winning bacon ninja. Social media trailblazer. Subtly charming pop culture advocate. Falls down a lot.”