By 2030, it will be over 1 billion people over 65 years of ageAnd there will be more than 200 million people Over 80 yearsThat is, the number of elderly people Doubled in two decades – Professor Ian Goldin, who deals with the phenomenon of globalization and human development at the University of Oxford, listed in his speech for the British daily “Financial Times”.
According to the professor, the improvement of public health and the development of medicine contribute Increases longevity, a long-term trend that began after World War II. Even more surprising is how Goldin thinks Fertility in the world is declining rapidly.
More than half of the world’s countries are located today Below the fertility rate The next generation of a given population should have the same number as the previous generation. Societies as diverse as Iran and Ireland have experienced it A sharp decline in population In a generation that way It cannot be explained by cultural experience, religion or income level – Oxford researcher opinion.
“The United States and other countries like Italy, South Korea, Japan, Hungary, Poland, Russia, China and Brazil are taking note. Record low fertility rates And even India is below replacement capacity. In fact, more than half of the projected population growth will occur over the next 30 years Only in eight countries of the world. Along with the increase in life expectancy comes a decrease in fertility “Rapid Aging of Societies” – Goldin writes.
As the professor points out, the rapidly growing population of the elderly depends Pension contributions and services rendered by a limited number of employees, World economies will be increasingly burdened. needed More savingsThis in turn means Low consumptionApart from the increased demand for services for the elderly.
The analyst notes A growing gap between increasing life expectancy Very slow progress in the treatment of dementia and others Degenerative diseases of the brain Increasing pressure on families, care systems and private and public finances.
“Aging also deepens Income and wealth inequality. As these disparities widen in the wake of an epidemic, the difference in life expectancy is more than 10 years The poor and the rich Communities in America and England. Also dizzy Life expectancy is 32 years difference Between rich countries like Japan and some poor countries like Sierra Leone, Goldin writes.
Across Africa, the average age Under 20 years, That’s about half that of most of Europe and East Asia. Asia’s economic growth is based on Cheap labor in factories, service of administrative facilities and call centers. Automating these processes, according to the professor, eliminates what might otherwise be middle-of-the-road steps in the development ladder. Bad consequences for 100 million young Africanswill enter the labor market in the next 10 years.
Demography does not clearly define our destiny, but “It should shape public policy and individual decisions. This means that more attention should be paid to improving health and extending working life, accepting more immigrants, Increasing productivity and increasing savings “- Comments” editor of “FT”.
According to him, the shift from consumption to saving will increase the efficiency of the circular economy and Reduces carbon dioxide emissions. Maybe even Low interest rates and inflation, Enables greater investment in infrastructure, health, housing and education A basis for sustainable development.
“If we stop postponing the population time bomb issue, it is possible Achieving Sustainable and Sustainable CommunitiesProfessor Goldin concludes that this will ensure a better life for future generations and the present.
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