Russia. Partial mobilization. OSW analyst Maria Domanska: Panic is spreading in Russia

Russians are trying to leave the country en masse, but we also have pictures of buses, which are being boarded by the mobilized crowd to go to the front – said Maria Tomaska ​​from the group of the Russian Center for Eastern Studies on TVN24. As he put it, Vladimir Putin’s decision to partially demobilize is unpopular in Russia, so authorities have “in recent days not only offered a stick in the form of very high, stiff fines for avoiding military service, but also a carrot. Promises of extra payments on top of wages”.

Vladimir Putin announced a partial demobilization in Russia on WednesdayThis includes reservists and military trainees. As per notification of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu 300,000 people will be involved in the mobilization.

On Thursday, the independent portal Novaya Gazeta Europa, citing a source in the Kremlin administration, wrote that the secret seventh point of Vladimir Putin’s decree on partial mobilization. The Russian Ministry of Defense will allow one million people to be employed.

Putin made the socially unpopular decision after a counteroffensive by Ukrainian armed forces that liberated almost the entire Kharkiv region. After the announced demobilization, Russians took to the streets and began holding protests against the demobilization. The media also took notice Traffic has increased at airports and border crossings.

Russians crossing the border with GeorgiaReuters

OSW Expert: Sorry, real panic just now

Dr. Maria Domanska, a researcher and former diplomat from the group of the Russian Center for Eastern Studies, told TVN24 on Friday that Russia’s formal borders for men are not officially closed. – For example, at the Vnukovo airport (in Moscow – version), where we saw pictures, there was a crowd of young people, they were asked about their duty to serve in the army and there are reports that it is necessary. Show them a return ticket and they’re released, he said. He added, “There are no reports of mass detention of such men at the border.”

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– In fact, they are trying to get out en masse Russia. However, we also have other films – pointed out Domanska. – Images of buses, on which a large crowd of people will get on, will first go to places of displacement in Russia, and then they will go ahead – he emphasized.

The analyst also said there was panic “in Russia”. – Pity the real panic happened just now, not when the war broke out. At that time, we also tried to drive out some large middle class or youth,” he added.

A protest in St. Petersburg after Putin announced a partial demobilizationPAP / EPA / ANATOLY MALTSEV

Domańska: In Russia the authorities give not only the stick, but also the carrot

The OSW analyst noted that he had not seen any resistance from mothers so far. – I expected the mothers to demonstrate in February after the occupation was declared. Now, street demonstrations in Russia were few and far between, and most of the participants were actually caught. Some prisoners were issued some strange summons to military commission – he said.

As he said, mobilization is very unpopular in Russia and the authorities know it. – They not only offer a stick in the form of very high fines for avoiding military service, which have been tightened in recent days, but also give a carrot in the form of promises to provide additional payments over and above wages from regional budgets – the OSW expert said. .

“The government ordered employers to keep jobs for mobilized workers,” he added.

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– Now we see people from very poor areas, they often cry, get on these buses and go to the army. They calculate that if he goes to jail for refusing to serve, he will leave his family destitute. If he goes ahead and dies, there will be money – Tomaska ​​assessed.

– In Russia, human life has a very low value, unfortunately, especially in the provinces where there are participants in previously mobilized violence or other forms of fighting. Ukraine – she added.

“The Promises of the Golden Hills”. What is the Kremlin headed for?

An expert at the Center for Eastern Studies said the Kremlin had so far seen no signs of danger. – On the other hand, the fact that the mobilization was delayed for so long proves that the authorities know that these promises of gold mountains in return for forced labor (rulers – version) neutralize the mood – Domanska said.

Referring to the protests, “it takes enormous courage to take to the streets in Russia.” Joint – TVN24 interlocutor said.

Main photo source: PAP / EPA / ANATOLY MALTSEV

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